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L03 / Generation mix planning

Optimal Fuel Mix Analysis I

Demand, energy, capacity factor, planning reserve margin, and load-duration curves.

Available33 slides
Chronological demand, energy, and reserve

01 / UNDERSTAND & PREDICT

Understand the model, then predict the result

Finalized lecture slides

Open / download original PDF ↗

Follow the original explanations, diagrams, derivations, and examples in slide order, then use the companion experiment below.

L03 original slide 1 of 33
L03 · 1 / 33
Slide text
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Figures and page order follow the student PDF for this lecture.

Do 4380 MW peak, 4850 MW accredited capacity, and 15% reserve agree? Is the GT/CC choice the same at 2000 and 6000 operating hours?
  • Sort a load record and verify unchanged energy.
  • Calculate reserve capacity targets and GT/CC crossover hours.
  • Cover net load, then check accredited reserve and identify the simplifications.
Generation fleet mix: concept and calculation route
Course-authored concept route; the numerical experiment follows below.

Power, energy, and capacity

E=\sum_i P_i\Delta t_i

Demand in MW is a rate. A two-hour block contributes MW×2 h to MWh. The L03 daily record and L04 annual record are distinct; do not treat one day as a year.

Duration curves and reserve

C_{target}=P_{peak}(1+PRM),\quad PRM=C_{acc}/P_{peak}-1

Sorting equal-duration blocks retains energy but loses chronology. Compare reserve with accredited planning capacity; that check alone does not establish reliability at every operating time.

Baseline example: check each step

  1. L03: twelve two-hour blocks total 77960 MWh; peak is 4380 MW.
  2. Current PRM ≈ 10.731%; the 15% target is 5037 MW, leaving 187 MW.
  3. GT/CC crossover is ≈ 4511.481 h/year; GT costs less at 2000 h.
  4. The simplified L04 net load assigns 1800 MW to CC; rounding to four CC units leaves six GT units for peak coverage.
  5. Default renewable capacity credit is zero; seven additional GT units give 4915 MW ≥ the 4830 MW reserve target.
Original slide headings for this lecture29
  1. 1Two parts of today's lecture
  2. 3Demand is a power rate
  3. 4Power over time gives energy use
  4. 5Capacity is generation capability
  5. 6Rule: do not mix energy and power
  6. 7Capacity factor measures generation utilization
  7. 8Capacity factor example - interpret utilization
  8. 9Planning reserve margin is the capacity-planning metric
  9. 10PRM gives a target, not a complete resource plan
  10. 11Planning example - identify the capacity gap
  11. 12First check the current reserve margin
  12. 13Then calculate the capacity needed to reach 15%
  13. 14PRM is a primary metric for U.S. resource-adequacy planning
  14. 16Chronological demand
  15. 17Load-duration curve
  16. 18Same demand, new order
  17. 19Daily and annual LDCs use different source records
  18. 20Construct an annual LDC from hourly demand
  19. 21LDC construction
  20. 22Worked-example data
  21. 23LDC example - Step 1
  22. 24LDC example - Step 2
  23. 25LDC example - Step 3
  24. 26LDC example - Step 4
  25. 27One LDC block: energy
  26. 28Daily-energy check
  27. 29From LDC peak to capacity target
  28. 30A brief link to the Final Project
  29. 31Summary
Cross-check the original slides

02 / EXPLORE

Change one input and explain the response

Set equal GT and CC variable costs and inspect the lack of a unique crossover. Change capacity credit and explain why energy output and reserve credit are separate inputs.

Advanced parameters / test readings

Preparing the model.

L03 daily energy—
L03 accredited capacity gap—
Cost crossover—
L04 mix accredited capacity—
CC units—
GT units for net load—
Additional GT for reserve—
L04 reserve capacity target—

L03: chronological and sorted load

L04: annual screening costs

Current intermediate values and numerical checks
Renewable output blocks are constant and capacity credit is a separate input. Rounding and adding GT give a feasible teaching portfolio; costs use fixed/variable coefficients without startup or ramp constraints.
03 / EDIT & COMPUTE
Edit code to reproduce the model independently
Reproduce the baseline, then modify the parameter scan. The source contains reusable independent model functions; edit the current function and inspect numerical checks.
case is a snapshot of the controls when you press Run. Call solve(case) and assign the final solution to result to plot it.
 
Download teaching models
The first run needs internet access to download Python. Computation stays in your browser; the solver uses only the standard library.
Ready to run.
Output appears here.
Inspect and edit the model source (advanced)
Edit this module's function and run again. case.module selects the module; solve(case) returns values, plots, and checks. The parameter experiment keeps the original JavaScript reference for comparison.
04 / CHECK & EXPLAIN
Companion experiment practice and feedback
Fixed practice inputs
Original L03 twelve two-hour MW blocks: 2500, 2300, 2200, 2400, 2900, 3500, 4000, 4200, 3900, 4380, 3700, 3000. Accredited capacity 4850 MW, PRM 15%; L04 GT: 217000+40.901T, CC: 284000+26.05T.
Practice uses fixed baseline inputs independently of the controls. Each field displays its tolerance.
±0.5 MWh
±0.05 MW
±0.5 h/year
  
Which information is preserved by sorting a load-duration curve?
Finally, explain in your own words
  1. What are the inputs, references, and main assumptions?
  2. Set equal GT and CC variable costs and inspect the lack of a unique crossover. Change capacity credit and explain why energy output and reserve credit are separate inputs.
  3. Did your code edit change physical parameters, the method, or representation bases? Which check helps identify that?
Passing numerical and understanding checks records this lecture’s companion practice as “practice checks passed.”